An economist estimates that tariffs as high as 20% on products from Northern Ireland entering the United States could result in at least £100 million in potential revenue losses for local companies.
The US President, Donald Trump, plans to declare additional tariffs on Thursday.
The British government has been attempting to
seek an exception but now anticipates that tariffs will be levied on British products
.
In 2023, Northern Ireland exported approximately £1.3 billion worth of products to the United States, primarily focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery.
Customs duties are essentially taxes imposed on products that come into the country from abroad.
Governments introduce tariffs with the aim of shielding domestic producers from global competition.
Esmond Birnie, an economist from Ulster University, has determined that a 20% tariff would result in a direct and limited economic effect of £100 million due to decreased sales.
He mentioned that secondary and tertiary round impacts, like a general decrease in worldwide commerce, might increase the total adverse effect to between £200m and £300m.
He mentioned that even an amount of £100 million could still significantly influence the broader economic performance.
He mentioned that it constitutes merely around 0.2% of Northern Ireland’s total GDP, estimated at approximately £50 billion.
Nevertheless, if Northern Ireland’s GDP growth for this year falls significantly below 1%, which is quite probable, it would equate to only a quarter of overall economic expansion.
Stuart Anderson, from the NI Chamber of Commerce, emphasized the significance of the US as an essential market and urged the UK government to provide a clear response following Wednesday’s announcement.
He noted that this situation might become “tricky” if the EU and UK react in distinct ways.
‘Strategic response’
U.S. tariffs might potentially have a greater impact
profound effect on the Republic of Ireland’s economy.
Of all the European Union nations, Ireland depends most heavily on the United States for exports.
In 2024, nearly one-third of the nation’s total exports were destined for the United States, amounting to €73 billion (£61 billion).
President Trump had earlier expressed his dissatisfaction with the extent of manufacturing activities.
Pharmaceutical companies from the US in Ireland
.
In the Irish Parliament, Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin stated that investors in Ireland are currently “holding back” to observe how the tariff situation unfolds.
He stated that the EU would adopt a “strategic response,” emphasizing the importance of ensuring that any retaliatory actions do not exacerbate the issues at hand.
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